The rise in protectionist trade measures from the US and countermeasures from the People’s Republic of China have significantly raised the risk stakes in Asia, says new report.
The rise in protectionist trade measures from the US and countermeasures from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and other countries poses a clear downside risk to the outlook for developing Asia, according to a new report.
The Asian Development Outlook 2018 (ADO 2018) said the regional gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to expand by 6.0% in 2018 and 5.9% in 2019, the rate envisaged in April, with subregional forecasts upgraded for Central Asia.
Regional growth forecasts are maintained at 6.5% for 2018 and 6.4% for 2019 when excluding the newly industrialized economies of Hong Kong, China; the Republic of Korea; Singapore; and Taipei, China.
Despite the fact trade tariffs which have been implemented so far in 2018 have not significantly dented buoyant flows, the ADO 2018 warns ongoing friction remains a downside risk to the outlook for developing Asia.
The risk of further ratcheting up of protectionist measures could undermine consumer and business confidence and thus developing Asia’s growth prospects.