CII teams up with Chatham House for ‘Thinkpiece’ reports

The US and Asia will lead a shallow recovery out of a long recession, predicts Chatham House in the first of six Chartered Insurance Institute (CII) Thinkpieces.

It says the current global economic recession was brought about by a rapid and unusually synchronised global slump and predicts that it will be longer and more painful than previous slowdowns, taking at least a year to recover. It warns and that the “old” world needs to re-evaluate its position as global regulation and governance change.

Vanessa Rossi, senior research fellow at the international relations think tank Chatham House notes:

  • the damage to confidence and jobs will take time to repair
  • the loss in wealth will also make consumers more cautious in their spending, "that the so-called ‘great moderation' of the last 50 years has finally ended, not with a whimper but a bang."

Dr Rossi predicts:

  • the US will likely be the first out of the recession, driven by a mix of policy efforts and rapid financial sector restructuring
  • Asia will be quick to benefit from any upturn in demand and could emerge as a dominant user as well as supplier of consumer goods.
  • these and other trends could challenge the US and Europe's current dominance as consumer and trend-setter of manufactured goods as well as a major player in global governance,
  • "the ‘old' world needs to come up with both new solutions and a clear role for itself if it wants to preserve its leadership in global governance and its key functions in financial services."

Sandy Scott, CII group chief executive, said: "We are excited that the CII Group is bringing the success of its Thinkpiece series launched last year to a new international level, reflecting the group's continuing global reach, and this analysis of the current economic crisis is a significant way to begin this series."

This series of six papers will be published monthly and cover a range of themes, including the rising influence of the Gulf in global finance and business, global property-related sectors, changing migration trends, and the impact of outsourcing on national economies and insurance trends.

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