Terror plot highlights terrorism risk analysis theory, says RMS

Security sources said that passengers on a Turkish Airlines jet overpowered a man who tried to hijack their flight from Norway to Istanbul.

Turkish media reported that the man tried to force his way into the cockpit, saying he had a bomb, and demanded that the plane return to Oslo, before being subdued by passengers.

According to Risk Management Solutions’ (RMS) terrorism risk analysis, a lone hijacker only has approximately a 1-in-4 chance of being stopped before boarding a plane. However, the individual is almost certain to be jumped on by fellow passengers, which is what happened on the Boeing 737, as two passengers tackled the would-be hijacker.

“For a hijacking to be successful, there needs to be around five or more operatives involved to gain entry to the flight deck and repel passenger reaction,” said Dr. Gordon Woo, chief architect of the RMS® Terrorism Risk Model. “But there is around a 4-in-5 probability of a conspiracy of this size being interdicted by the intelligence services.”

Dr. Woo added: “In the tenth anniversary year of 9/11, hijacking a plane is much tougher than it used to be. It requires a team of operatives, but any sizeable conspiracy has a very good chance of being thwarted by intelligence”.