There have been fewer terrorist attacks in the Middle East but increased activity in Pakistan, India and Afghanistan, according to Aon’s terror threat map

Islamist terrorists have shifted their centre of attention from the Middle East to South Asia, according to Aon’s 2009 Terrorism Threat Map.

There have been fewer terrorist attacks in the Middle East but increased activity in Pakistan, India and Afghanistan, with Thailand and Nepal also showing increased activity, according to the map.

The map, devised with security consultancy Janusian, tracks global levels of terrorist activity.

‘It represents a snapshot of terrorist groups’ intent and capability and provides an indication of the current threat of attack in each country,’ said Aon.

The research also points at the re-emergence of traditional ideological forms of terrorism. Craig Preston, executive director at Aon, explained: ‘In a global recession it is not inconceivable that a new generation of terrorists will emerge from disaffected communities in a re-emergence of class-based politics.’

The terror threat map also shows a more settled outlook for North America, Europe and Australia.

‘Although the prospect of a major terrorist attack in a Western country is ever present…we are unlikely to see the frequency of attacks in Western countries that we might have expected a few years ago,’ added Preston.

The authors attributed this to better counter-terrorism capability and some shift of focus among terrorist groups towards establishing new fronts in places like Pakistan and Somalia.

‘In general, operating conditions for terrorists have become more difficult in Western countries as well as in some Middle Eastern countries, such as Saudi Arabia,’ said Preston.

Aon’s research also highlighted the threat posed by leftist/Maoist activity in India and Nepal.

‘Outside India little attention is paid to the activities of the rural conflict in the north east part of the country but Maoist terrorists have become amongst the most prolific in the world. The recent Indian elections led to a significant spike in attacks; in April 2009, 65 terrorist incidents were recorded there,’ added the broker.

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