Cat 4 typhoon threatens Japan

Usagi is currently a weak typhoon lying to the southeast of Japan but is expected to track to the north northwest, pick up forward speed and intensify over the next three days.

ReAdvisory, a Carvill company, warns Usagi is likely to reach the equivalent of a category 4 storm over the next 2-3 days due to decreasing windshear, although it will remain a relatively compact storm.

Current model forecasts are in relatively good agreement showing Usagi making a landfall along the south western coast of Japan on Thursday. However, the error on this forecast is high, so landfall is possible over a wide area of southern Japan. It is unlikely, however, that Usagi could reach the Tokyo area.

Usagi is likely to weaken in the 12-24 hours before landfall – landfall as the equivalent of a category 3 storm is the most likely case.

After landfall, Usagi is likely to weaken quickly over the mountains of southern Japan, passing into the Sea of Japan where it will further weaken as it undergoes an extratropical transition.